When I was working in export, I ran three agents – one in Manila, one in Washington and one in Brussels. What was I after? Current knowledge. But knowledge always sits in frameworks – what kind of framework emerges from today’s news? Simply reading about political hotspots does not help people running businesses, and some speculation about the fallout from recent events is not imaginative enough.
The world turns. Looking at political risk in 2025.
In early 2022 Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine upended the post-Cold War trading order. More than two years on, the conflict continues, Western sanctions on Russia have intensified, and global energy markets have been reshaped. For UK exporters, Russia is effectively off-limits for most goods and services, and any residual trade requires rigorous sanctions screening. The lesson is not to avoid Eastern Europe altogether: Poland, the Baltic states and the Czech Republic have absorbed investment redirected from Russia and are hungry for British engineering, professional services and green technology. Use the UK sanctions list and the Export Support Service to check what is permitted.
The Middle East remains volatile. The war in Gaza and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have disrupted Suez Canal routes, pushing up freight costs and delivery times. Yet the Gulf states continue to diversify. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s investment in renewables, logistics and healthcare create openings for UK firms in education, medtech, clean energy and professional services. The UAE can still serve as a neutral regional hub, but build in contingency for shipping delays and keep travel security under review.
China is no longer the unstoppable growth story of the 2010s. Its property sector is weighed down by debt, domestic demand is uneven, and regulatory scrutiny of foreign firms has increased. Geopolitical friction – over Taiwan, technology and supply chains – means many UK businesses are adopting a ‘China plus one’ strategy, keeping a presence while diversifying into Vietnam, India or Mexico. If China remains on your radar, protect your intellectual property, choose a local partner carefully and stay across country-specific guidance.
India is now the world’s fifth-largest economy and one of the fastest-growing major markets. UK-India trade negotiations continue, and British expertise in fintech, education, healthcare, infrastructure and green technology is in demand. A local partner or distributor is usually essential, and the UK-India Business Council offers practical market intelligence. Do not underestimate the complexity of India’s state-level regulations and tax regime.
Southeast Asia’s collective economy is forecast to become the fourth-largest by 2030. Indonesia, the region’s biggest market, has moved to ease investment rules and develop its digital and renewable-energy sectors. Vietnam and Malaysia are benefiting from supply-chain relocation, while Singapore remains a gateway for finance and professional services. The UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which entered into force in December 2024, improves market access for British exporters across several Asia-Pacific economies. As ever, joint ventures with a reputable local firm are often the most reliable route to market.
The United States remains the UK’s largest single export destination, worth around £190 billion a year in goods and services. But doing business there is not frictionless. The Inflation Reduction Act and Buy American policies favour domestic suppliers, while post-2024 election trade policy could bring new tariffs or sectoral disputes. Success usually means establishing a local entity, understanding state-level regulation and pricing in currency risk.
Mexico has become a nearshoring hotspot as firms seek proximity to the US market, but security and rule-of-law concerns persist. The UK has trade continuity agreements with Mexico, Chile and Peru, and CPTPP membership opens further opportunities across the Pacific Americas. Do your due diligence on local partners and operational security before committing.
And where are budgets easing now?
Where should you look for money in national and corporate budgets? The green transition is the biggest structural shift. Governments and corporates are spending heavily on renewable energy, electric transport, carbon capture, retrofitting and sustainable supply chains. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which began its transitional phase in 2023, will eventually tax carbon-intensive imports, creating demand for low-carbon British goods and services. Meanwhile, the UK’s top goods export markets include the USA, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Ireland, Switzerland, China, Belgium, Italy and Spain – familiar places, but each with its own regulatory currents.
The most important thing to know about exporting is that it is essentially about people. Women often make excellent exporters because we tend to read what people want – and build the relationships that close deals. The Government provides extensive support for businesses starting or expanding overseas: the Export Support Service, UK Export Finance, trade missions run by the British Chambers of Commerce, and sector-specific advice from the Department for Business and Trade. Much of it is free. For more practical guidance, see our exporting advice for women-led businesses and business finance guides.
Start with a market visit, talk to other exporters, and map your risks before you commit. Exporting can feel daunting when the world is shifting beneath your feet, but change also creates openings. Keep your knowledge current, build strong local relationships, and use the support available. It makes for a very exciting business life.
